Everyday Homicides in the nation Fall Over a Third Under the Sheinbaum Administration, Per Official Data
The mean number of per-day killings monthly in Mexico has fallen by thirty-seven percent since Head of State Claudia Sheinbaum began her term, per recent administrative statistics. But, security specialists have advised that murder numbers may not point to improved countrywide safety.
Significant Reduction in Daily Averages
Officials reported an mean of close to 55 homicides a day in the month of November as opposed to nearly 87 when Claudia Sheinbaum assumed the presidency in September of last year. This data was provided by the head of the nation's federal public security agency, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the leader's regular press briefing on Tuesday.
“The figures in murders that we have seen over these past months is extremely notable,” the President stated, adding that the previous month the smallest number of homicides were recorded for any November in the last decade.
Historical Context and Official Strategy
Violent organized crime internal conflicts, alongside the government’s highly military operations to confront the cartels, have caused Mexico’s homicide rate rise sharply in recent times. The rate hit a peak of 36,773 killings in 2020, per the country’s national statistics office.
That gave Mexico a murder rate more than four times greater than the United States. However, homicides have been on the decrease, declining to 33,550 in the last calendar year. Claudia Sheinbaum has linked her national security strategy for an ostensibly more pronounced reduction in homicides in the current year.
At a news briefing in August, the Mexican leader said: “There is a plan, there is tracking of the plan, and there is specific tracking locality by locality in certain cases. The approach functions. And we have to continue working at it every day.”
The main elements of Sheinbaum’s safety plan include:
- Reinforcing Mexico’s national guard.
- Enhancing information gathering and investigation capabilities.
- Increased collaboration between government departments.
Analyst Skepticism and Statistical Concerns
Nevertheless, public safety analysts urged caution that using homicide statistics to assess the situation of peace was misleading. This is particularly true considering the increase in other criminal activities such as people going missing.
“It would be positive information if this was a decrease, but I think we can’t just concentrate on the homicide data and conclude: ‘Alright, excellent,’” said Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an expert on Mexico's cartels. “I would be guardedly hopeful.”
According to the policy analysis thinktank Mexico Evalúa, killings overall declined by more than 20% in the first 10 months of the current year compared with the identical timeframe last year. But, disappearances have gone up by 15% and in some states have surged by up to 200%.
“Numbers on homicides is no longer valid for assessing the reality of violence,” argued Armando Vargas, a security expert at Mexico Evalúa. “First, we have police and prosecutors who do not have the capacity or the will to correctly identify and categorize remains. Second, organized [criminals] … have the capability to mask violence through disappearances.”
Vargas noted that using monthly averages of daily homicides was also concerning because it may obscure days when there were particularly spiking levels of murders.
“Using the per-day mean makes spikes of violent crime unseen,” he concluded.
Arrests and Seizures as Measures of Success
Where the government can point to the effectiveness of its security strategy is on detentions and seizures. Almost 40,000 individuals were detained between October 2024 and this past November for major crimes, according to government data. More than 20,000 firearms were taken and 311 tonnes of drugs seized.
“Donald Trump cannot accuse President Sheinbaum of inaction, because actually she is accomplishing a lot with these many thousands of detentions, many thousands of seizures, and all the operational degrading of criminal groups. It’s very politically advantageous,” said Vargas.
Persistent Unrest and Societal Anger
However in spite of these actions, Mexico continues to be plagued by extreme bloodshed, with a number of states in the throes of cartel-driven violence. Last month there was a prominent murder of a popular mayor in the region of Michoacan, one of 10 local leaders assassinated in the last 12 months.
Weeks after, thousands of protesters protested in the capital and throughout the nation to express their outrage at corruption and narco-violence.
“The federal government frames [data] in a manner to build a story of safety. Politically it’s extremely potent, socially it’s very problematic,” the analyst remarked.